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                                               Crafty Bastards Workshop - Green Team

"The dogmas of the quiet past are inadequate to the stormy present. The occasion is piled high with difficulty, and we must rise with the occasion. As our case is new, so we must think anew and act anew."

~ Abraham Lincoln ~ December 1, 1862

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Current Mission:
The Future Strategic Ecosystem: January 21-23, 2015What are the key drivers and relationships among and between the actors and forces interacting in the complex strategic ecosystem? 
Net assessments will explore a variety of approaches for appropriately selecting, characterizing, and correlating the influence and impact of the strategic environment (Green) on Blue and Red (adversary) interactions.

Read These First:

These three distinct papers offer different lenses through which to consider how best to characterize and understand the strategic environment. We are not offering them as final conclusions, but as starting points to engender conversation and debate in the course of the Workshop. They are not approved for public release and should not be disseminated further. They do not reflect the official views or positions of their authors or of the U.S. Government.

Ecosystems
Complex Systems
Culture

Current Workshop Library:

The Knight And The Gardner
Bin Laden’s Legacy
Trapped in the War on Terror
Declaring Victory
Global Guerillas
Social Evolution — Past, Present, and Future
What is Net Assessment
Getting To Green Report
Green Workshop Objectives
Rethinking Counter Terrorism
Domestic Terrorism: A National Assessment of State and Local Preparedness
New NATO Policy Guidelines on Counterterrorism: Analysis, Assessments, and Actions
Competing Visions For U.S. Grand Strategy
The Evolving Terrorist Threat To Southeast Asia
Critical Infrastructure Protection Architectures in an Era of Improvisational Malignant Devices
Synchrophasors and their Application for a Secure Smart Grid
Major Cyber Attack Will Cause Significant Loss of Life By 2025, Experts Predict
2015 Global Forecast
Ecosystem
The Tragedy of the American Military

The American public and its political leadership will do anything for the military except take it seriously or become personally involved. The result is a nation in which careless spending and strategic folly combine to lure America into endless wars it can’t win. During and after World War II Americans were engaged in supporting the military, now many barely give them a second thought. Those returning from combat were revered and still are in rhetoric, but are rarely given more than a passing glance. Many in the military feel that so few of them are doing the work of so many with little appreciation. The military is in trouble "'because our presumption of unconquerable superiority leads us deeper and deeper into unwinnable military conflicts.' And the separation of the military from the public disrupts the process of learning from these defeats." Recommendations are made to get the American public more involved and invested before going to war, to better alloate funding, and to have presidential leadership that cares.

The Tragedy of the American Military

The reason the American middle class has stagnated in recent decades is the upward talent flow got clogged up. America lost its exceptional economy because too many Americans stopped doing the most exceptional things they could. Too many middle-class workers were forced into low-skill, low-paying jobs. Too many people born poor were knocked off course on their way to gaining more valuable skills. Too many American elites flocked to Wall Street and K Street, where they got rich at the expense of the overall economy. Not enough entrepreneurs took risks and built new businesses.
These trends run in stark contrast to how Americans built decades of shared prosperity in the postwar era: by investing in themselves and clearing paths for others to get ahead, too. For decades after World War II, the U.S. economy pushed workers to build skills and maximize their economic potential. That was the secret to arguably the greatest period of shared prosperity in the history of capitalism. In recent decades, however, new barriers have sprung up to push people into lower-value positions — not social barriers, but economic ones. A healthy middle class, put another way, is a precious resource in the American economy. If America’s leaders want those jobs and raises to come back — if they want the economy to get back to working like it used to — they need to fix the country’s broken talent flow. They need to encourage the most skilled workers to create value for the whole economy, not just themselves.

Critical Infrastructure and Drivers/Global Threats

Many times, Blue interprets threats based upon previous conflicts. By viewing radical Islamism, and the conflict with Red extremists this way, Blue’s insight into the overall challenge is incomplete. Namely, Blue simplifies and relates Islamic extremism to state-based enemies (e.g. Nazi Germany, Cold War Russia), where the goals of the opposition are ideological rather than economic, geographic, or political. Moreover, these Red actors exist in a culture that is relevantly different from many of the Western Blue actors; their goals are different and, in large part, their motivation is born out of an opposition to Western ideals. Therefore, in Blue’s attempt to subdue Red, traditional “victory” (liberation and/or assimilation of the enemy and their ‘oppressed citizens’ into Blue’s way of life) may serve only to create new enemies. It is crucial to understand the existential values and tribal tensions of a state before attempting to impose new ideals, even if the perception is that the end result will better the state’s people. Anna Simons’ article shows how Blue sets itself up for existential failure in the battle against radical Islam; specifically, by ignoring existing tensions (which could otherwise have been manipulated to preclude creating new enemies), and assuming that American values would be viewed as “better” than existing Islamic values. In short, Blue cannot simply engage in conflict with Red without understanding Red’s environment.

Analyzing the Vulnerability of Critical Infrastructure to Attack and Planning Defenses utilizing new bilevel programming models to (1) help make the country’s critical infrastructure more resilient to attacks by terrorists, (2) help governments and businesses plan those improvements, and (3) help influence related public policy on investment incentives, regulations, etc. An intelligent attacker (terrorists) and defender (us) are key features of all these models. The models are illustrated with applications to electric power grids, subways, airports, and other critical infrastructure.

The Challenges of Protecting Critical Infrastructure

Addressing the need for better public-private partnering to protect critical infrastructure. The responsibility for setting goals rests primarily with the government, but the implementation of steps to reduce the vulnerability of privately owned and corporate assets depends primarily on private-sector knowledge and action. Although private firms uniquely understand their operations and the hazards they entail, it is clear that they currently do not have adequate commercial incentive to fund vulnerability reduction. For many, the cost of reducing vulnerabilities outweighs the benefit of reduced risk from terrorist attacks as well as from natural and other disasters.

Regional Demographics and the War on Terrorism

The ultimate success of counter-terrorism strategy will depend on numerous variables. Some, such as military capabilities and public support for military operations, are well known or easily discerned. Others are less obvious, but will still be critical. Among these, according to the author, are demographic trends in regions where counter-terror campaigns are being prosecuted, and the effectiveness of U.S. policies, formulated in response to these trends, to mitigate the appeal of Islamist extremism.

Terrorism is one effect of overpopulation

The recent terrorism attacks have had a profound effect on the world. One item, which contributes greatly to the growth of terrorism is human overpopulation. Overpopulation effects everyone, not just the area in which it occurs. Increasing population in Afghanistan, other Middle and Near Eastern countries, and in Africa and Asia increases poverty. Desperation resulting from this poverty makes for easy recruitment for terrorists as we are now seeing.

The Rockefeller Report of the Commission on Population Growth and the American Future

This report commissioned by President Nixon identified the risks associated with overpopulation back in the 1970’s and was dismissed due to pressure by the Catholic church. The indicators in the report can help highlight indicators that need to be addressed today.

Rocket Man - The New Yorker

How one individual uses the internet to compile and blog about the war in Syria, while never actually going there. The article shows the influence one person can have through technology.

Department of Defense Official Study (2013): Adaptation Roadmap

One of the most important documents on this subject for our purposes discusses role of climate change in national security and terrorism, in part. Among the future trends that will impact our national security is climate change. Rising global temperatures, changing precipitation patterns, climbing sea levels, and more extreme weather events will intensify the challenges of global instability, hunger, poverty, and conflict. They will likely lead to food and water shortages, pandemic disease, disputes over refugees and resources, and destruction by natural disasters in regions across the globe.

Water and Terrorism

The importance of freshwater and water infrastructure to human and ecosystem health and to the smooth functioning of a commercial and industrial economy makes water and water systems targets for terrorism. The chance that terrorists will strike at water systems is real; indeed, there is a long history of such attacks. Water infrastructure can be targeted directly or water can be contaminated through the introduction of poison or disease causing agents. The damage is done by hurting people, rendering water unusable, or destroying purification and supply infrastructure. More uncertain, however, is how significant such threats are today.

Activism, Hacktivism, and Cyberterrorism: The Internet as a Tool for Influencing Foreign Policy

One of the best articles on this subject - often referred to in countless other scholarly works) The purpose of this paper is to explore how the Internet is altering the landscape of political discourse and advocacy, with particular emphasis on how it is used by those wishing to influence foreign policy. Emphasis is on actions taken by non-state actors, including both individuals and organizations, but state actions are discussed where they reflect foreign policy decisions triggered by the Internet. The primary sources used in the analysis are news reports of incidents and events. These are augmented with interviews and survey data where available.

A Free Irresponsible Press

Wikileaks and the Battle over the Soul of the Networked Fourth Estate.

The Fourth Estate is Dead, Long Live the Fourth Estate

A New Military Mindset for a Rapidly Evolving Communication Environment. The authors identify a need for a shift in the communication mindset of the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) to better account for the speed, ubiquity and mobility of human interaction in the evolving communication environment. The leadership requirement to define a new reality when guiding transition and complex change is identified. Three reality-defining truths are drawn from the convergence of leadership and communication theories. First, it is not possible to lead without communicating. Second, it is not possible to not communicate. Third, it is not possible to communicate without influencing others.